Analysts are optimistic about Macau’s gross gaming revenue, estimating a strong beginning to the month of March. These figures aligned with earlier predictions, underscoring the region’s robust post-COVID recovery despite a slower-than-expected start to 2025.
Macau GGR to Pick up Speed in H2
According to analysts from JP Morgan, an American multinational financial services firm, the special administrative region’s GGR must have reached approximately $718.5 million during the first nine days of March alone. This figure suggests that the SAR’s casino earned roughly $80 million a day, consistent with earlier predictions by the bank’s experts.
JP Morgan described the results as “encouraging” for this time of the year. They suggest that mass GGR has not only recovered but exceeded the pre-pandemic results, running at 110%+ the 2019 figures. The VIP segment, on the other hand, is still struggling.
Compared to 2024, the results are so far stable and do not show significant change. JP Morgan’s experts expect the GGR result for the full month to reach approximately $2.4 billion, keeping the Q1 metrics in line with the ones reported in the prior-year period.
In the meantime, analysts believe that Macau’s GGR will continue to modestly accelerate in 2025, posting stronger results in the second half of the year. They believe that the SAR will conclude 2025 with GGR growth of 3%.
JP Morgan’s report highlights confidence in Macau despite competitors’ wariness about the suboptimal start to 2025.
Macau’s Year-Start GGR Was Weaker Than Expected
As mentioned, Macau experienced a slow start to the year as the January GGR decreased 5.6% despite the optimistic forecasts. Experts had been certain that January would be a stronger month, drawing comparisons with early 2024 when high VIP gambling numbers and good luck rates helped boost income.
Unfortunately, the reality was that casino business in the region was slower and that the new visa rules failed to bring in more tourists, contrary to analysts’ forecasts.
While some analysts were cautious about the drop, they seemed to generally agree that Macau GGR is likely to pick up speed in the second half of the year.
Trump Labelled Macau a Foreign Adversary
As mentioned, some analysts are reluctant to post optimistic forecasts for Macau, especially in the wake of US President Trump’s recent comments about the region.
Two weeks ago, Trump signed a memorandum that directed the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CIFUS) to impose investment restrictions on a trio of foreign adversaries, and specifically Hong Kong, Macau, and China.
Both Hong Kong and Macau are special administrative regions of China. As a result of the new memorandum, the CIFUS has now been directed to analyze investments potentially made by individuals and/or companies that are associated with China.
In addition to that, Trump is looking to curb investments from entities associated with America’s adversaries.
